- Dot-Com Roller Coaster Ride
- In 1980: PC Era Is Here
- In 2000: Post-PC Era Is Here
- New Trend in Post-PC Era: Wireless; mCommerce....
Or the PAST:
- Agrarian Age (6000 BC ~ 1776)
- ~1000 AD: China used to contribute 97% of World GNP
- Industrial Age (1776 ~ 1950)
- Adam Smith (1776) and James Watt (1770)
- Harnessing Energy (Muscle)
- Strategic Inflection Points:
- Fire Machine (Steam Engine)
- Electricity (1880)
- Kitty Hawk (1903), Moon Landing (1969)
Rules:
- Increasing Reture to Scale
- Diminishing Return to Scope
Or the CURRENT Age:
- Information Age (1950 ~ 2020)
- Harnessing Knowledge (Brain)
- Strategic inflection Points:
- Transistor (1947), PC (1980) , WWW (1995)
- Machines that Think (200?)
Rules:
- Moore's Law (2x @18 months)
- Metcalfe's Law (N2 of impact)
- Optical Moore's Law (four times per year)
- Increasing Return to Scope
- Diminishing Return to Scale
Or the FUTURE:
- Biotech Age (2000 ~ 2050?)
- Harnessing DNA (Gene)
- Strategic Inflection Points
- Double Helix (1953)
- Dolly (1997); Clone Human (2001)
- Human Genome Project (6/2000)
- Cancer Cure (2020?)
Rules:
- Biotech Version of Moore's Law: Knowledge Doubling (six months)
Controversy
- A crop cannot be recalled (e.g. Super Weed)
- Genetocracy (e.g. Astra)
- Public Property Vs Private Benefits
- Quantum Age (2020 ~ 2100)
- Harnessing Matter
- Strategic Inflection Age:
- Quantum Computer Theory (David Deutsch, 1985)
- Stable Qubits (2010?)
- Universal Quantum computer (2020?)
- Molecular Machine that grow & reproduces: (Humans plays God? Creating a new non-DNA based life form) (2050?)
Rules:
- Quantum Theory
Consider the Auto Industry:
- 1889: Daimler and Benz both invented car
- 1900: US farmer / entrepreneur Henry Ford first saw Automobile in London Crystal Palace World Exposition
- 1920: 200+ automobile companies (booming and consolidation of auto industry)
- 1999: 2.5 automobile companies in US
- 2005: 5-10 automobile companies left worldwide
So what would an enterprise invest in if they could invent a time machine and go back to the 1920s?
- Definitely not horse carriages or buggy whips
- Highway? Parts? Own Brand Car?
- Did anyone say "Oil"
To hold on to the FUTURE we need tools:
- To know the Mega trend: don't be "me-too" or "join the party at the last waltz"
- To control knowledge and hence control the future
- To have technology & market intelligence
- For knowledge management
- To find the "oil" of the next wave.
What we need is a map, a roadmap, of possibilities for INNOVATIONS to guide MANAGEMENT decisions. We need an INNOVATION ROADMAP!
Adopted from University of the Sunshine Coast - Innovation and Entrepreneurship note.
2 comments:
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